Republicans Just Got Two Disastrous New Polls
Democrats are leading the generic ballot by double digits in two new polls released Wednesday.
Quinnipiac University found Democrats have a 14 point lead in the generic ballot.
NPR/Marist shows Democrats leading by 12 points.
If the election were held today, Democrats would be poised for major gains in both houses of Congress.
According to two new polls released Wednesday, Democrats lead over Republicans on the generic ballot is in double digits.
Quinnipiac University found that 52 percent of voters favor a Democratic candidate in the upcoming midterm elections, while 38 percent back a Republican.
That is a whopping 14 point lead for Democrats, an increase from 9 points in the same poll in August.
But that is not the only poll with bad news for Republicans to be released Wednesday. The NPR/Marist poll found Democrats hold a 12-point lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot poll.
The survey found that 50 percent of voters said they are more likely to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district, while just 38 percent said they would likely vote Republican.
In order to regain the majority in the House, Democrats need to net 23 seats.
I know the generic ballot is pretty abstract for people, but just to give a sense of what it means….
If Democrats were to win the House popular vote by 14 points, as per this morning’s Quinnipiac poll, we’d project them to gain ~65 (!) House seats and also pick up the Senate.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver projects that Democrats will win the House if they win the generic ballot by about 6 to 7 points nationally on election day. And if the double-digit lead holds until election day, that would put the Senate in play as well.
About the polls: The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,038 adults was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 9. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. The NPR/Marist poll was conducted Sept. 5-9 and surveyed 777 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
[image via screengrabs]
